STUD POKER

Five-card stud poker depends on mathematics and self-disci­pline. The average winning hand is the lowest among all games of poker—a pair of kings or a pair of aces. Overhead is almost non-existent; there is almost never an ante, and you do not have to bet unless you have the high card showing on the first round. As a result you can sit in the game for literally hours and hardly spend a penny, waiting for a good hand to come along. The winnings almost always go to the players who are conservative at the start and bold when they think they have the best hands.

Stud poker offers some classic questions, which are easy enough to answer.

1. The idea that you should not play unless you can beat the
board—unless you have a better hand than any hand showing, at
the stage at which you make the bet. I regret to say that this
precept is almost entirely true. It is devastatingly boring, but it
is true. You are unlikely to win in a stud game unless you bet
only when you can beat anything showing. In all other cases,
you should get out of the pot.

2.      The question of which is better, an ace in the hole (assum­
ing no other ace showing) or a low pair, say up to fives or sixes.
The low pair is much better. If the ace itself is not paired, you
have the better hand at the start. You are even more likely to
improve the pair than the holder of the ace is to pair the ace.
But much depends on how you play a low pair after the first
round or two. Probably the best method is to raise on the second
round and see how many stay in. From the number who stay in,
you can judge the possibility that you are up against other low
pairs or high hole cards. From the next round of cards, you can
judge the possibility that any of the high hole cards has paired.

Stud poker players are often prejudiced against low pairs back to back because they have lost so much on them. They have not lost by sticking around in the first place—that is when they get their killings if they improve—but by sticking around after it is apparent that some other player in the game has paired and has a higher pair. For example, a pair of fives unimproved is a bad fourth-round play against a strong player who showed an eight on the first round and has drawn an ace or king later and who bets strongly. He probably has you beaten at this point, and if he has you beaten at this point you are going to lose in the long run by bucking him.

3. The one invariable rule of stud poker is not to stay against a pair showing unless you already have a higher pair. The num­ber of "over" cards is of no consequence whatsoever. If he has you beaten at that point, he figures to have you beaten at the end and he also has an advantage that you cannot possibly have —he can have a cinch hand and you cannot. If there is an open pair showing, be very wary of staying even when you have a higher pair. Stop first to consider the possibility that he was paired back to back at the start. This will depend upon your appraisal of the player and his habits, and also on the number of aces that have shown (or of cards higher than the high show­ing card at the start, as for example when the high showing card at the start was a queen and no kings have shown). A stud poker player must have the courage to get out on the highest showing hand when all the indications are that some concealed hand is better at this point than his hand is.

Don't stay on straight or flush possibilities, unless by pure accident you find yourself with a possible straight or flush with one card yet to come and the pot offers you better than 5 to 1 odds for staying in.

One of the standard precepts of the game is, "Never bet into a possible cinch hand." If you observed this rule you would sacrifice much of your potential winnings. Stud poker is more a game of figuring than any other kind of poker. The opponent may show a possible cinch, such as a possible straight or flush, but you must consider the hole cards on which he might have stayed in so long. You must form your judgment on the hole card he may have, rather than on the entire number of possible hole cards there are for him. You then think about whether any of his possible hole cards will cause him to call a bet on a losing hand. When you think you probably can win and also that he may call on a losing hand, you must bet. For example, you have queens up and he probably has tens up but he may have three sixes, as in this case:

Five-card stud. You raised on the second round and took the lead on the third round. At the final round only one opponent has stayed with you.

You have: Q down; 9, Q, 5, 5.

Opponent has: ? down; 10, 6, 8, 6.

If opponent has a six in the hole he knows he has a cinch hand.

Opponent is high and checks. You must bet your queens up, despite his possible cinch. It is too unlikely that he played at the start with a six in the hole and a ten up. His most likely hands are tens up or merely the sixes he shows, perhaps with an ace or other high hole card. But with either of these hands he can beat your showing fives and with tens up he can beat the nines up that you are likely to have. He will probably call a bet and you will lose much of your potential winnings if you do not give him an opportunity to do so.

Occasionally you must bluff in such cases (when you have represented a hand that is probably two pair, but do not ac­tually have them); and occasionally the opponent will reraise as a bluff and you must trust your judgment of his style to decide whether or not to call. All that is part of the game.

In stud poker you must look at every card dealt and every card folded and must remember them. They affect the chances that any particular opponent has a particular hole card. For example, two aces have shown and folded. You are against one opponent who catches an ace as his last card. You have two kings. You must ask yourself whether he would have continued to stay with an ace when the other two aces had already shown. If he is a very good player, figure him for an early pair and not aces paired on the last card. If he is a poor player, you might worry. But you cannot have any idea if you did not see and take note of those aces that folded. Incidentally, this is an over­simplified case; your success is going to depend on how many of the sixes and nines and queens you see, as well as the aces. Everybody notices aces.

When to play on the first round. The average winning hand is two kings or two aces. Many pots are won on less (such as ace high) and many pots require more, as the upcards will re­veal; but it is a basic principle to stay only when the odds against making two kings or better are less than the odds offered by the pot. The following are minimum plays on the first round.

1. Any pair.

2.       Ace in the hole; but if another ace is showing, the upcard
should be a nine or higher.

3.       King in the hole, when no ace is showing. If an ace or an­
other king is showing, the upcard must be jack or queen and no more than one other player can show a queen or jack (as the case may be).

The great fallacy is in staying on a hole card such as jack simply because it is high—that is, in the occasional deals when all the original upcards are low. For example, the first upcards in an eight-handed game are 2, 8, 7, 10, 8, 5, 10, 6. You have the seven up and a jack in the hole. You can "beat the board" but it is a bad play. The odds are 13 to 1 that another player has you beaten.

Raising in five-card stud. There are two arguments against raising early in a stud game. Once you have raised, you will be expected to take the lead from that time on, and you will get only minimum calls from the other players—unless one of them knows he has you beaten and raises back, in which case you are stuck with the odds against you and much of your money in the pot. The second of the two arguments against an early raise is that in most stud games the limit is higher on the last card, and if you can only raise once you might as well wait until your raise will win you the most money.

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